which country will join schengen in 2026

Project Fab

4 min read

·

14-03-2025

5

0

Share

Which Country Will Join Schengen in 2026? The Uncertain Future of Free Movement

The Schengen Area, a zone encompassing 27 European countries that have abolished passport and other border control checks at their mutual borders, is a cornerstone of European integration. Its seamless travel facilitates tourism, business, and cultural exchange, but its expansion is a complex process fraught with political and logistical challenges. While there's no guarantee of any country joining Schengen in 2026, several candidates are vying for inclusion, each facing unique hurdles. Examining their progress and the broader context provides a clearer picture of the potential future of the Schengen Area.

Current Candidates and Their Prospects:

Several countries are currently in various stages of the Schengen accession process. However, predicting which, if any, will join in 2026 is difficult due to the unpredictable nature of political landscapes and the rigorous requirements for admission. Let's explore some key contenders:

• Bulgaria and Romania: These two Balkan nations have been official candidates for Schengen membership for many years, having fulfilled most of the technical requirements. However, political resistance from certain EU member states has repeatedly delayed their accession. Concerns have been raised regarding their effectiveness in combating cross-border crime and managing external borders. While 2026 might seem optimistic for their entry, continued progress in addressing these concerns could pave the way for a positive decision. Their integration would significantly expand the Schengen Area, particularly in southeastern Europe.

• Croatia: Croatia joined the EU in 2013 and subsequently fulfilled the requirements for Schengen accession. Unlike Bulgaria and Romania, Croatia's progress has been relatively smoother, and its full membership in the Schengen Area was approved in December 2022, with the effective date being January 1st, 2023. Therefore, it is already a part of Schengen, removing it from the list of potential joiners in 2026.

• Cyprus: Cyprus's accession to Schengen has been complicated by the ongoing political division of the island. The unresolved Cyprus problem, involving the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, presents significant challenges to border management and security cooperation. While Cyprus is a full member of the EU, its inclusion in Schengen remains uncertain until a resolution regarding its divided territory is found. The timeline for such a resolution remains unclear, making a 2026 accession highly unlikely.

• Other Potential Candidates (Long-Term): Countries outside the EU, particularly from the Western Balkans, aspire to join the EU and eventually Schengen. These include Serbia, North Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, and Kosovo. However, their paths to Schengen membership are considerably longer, involving first fulfilling the criteria for EU accession, then navigating the rigorous Schengen accession process. A 2026 inclusion for any of these countries is extremely improbable.

The Challenges to Schengen Expansion:

The Schengen Area's expansion is not simply a matter of fulfilling technical criteria. Several factors complicate the process:

• Political Opposition: Concerns about security, particularly related to managing external borders and combating illegal immigration, have fueled resistance from some EU member states. This political opposition often acts as a significant hurdle, delaying or even blocking the accession of candidate countries.

• Border Control Capabilities: Candidate countries must demonstrate robust border control mechanisms, including effective surveillance systems, personnel training, and information sharing with other Schengen states. Meeting these standards requires substantial investment and capacity building.

• Visa Policy Harmonization: The Schengen Area operates with a unified visa policy. Candidate countries must align their visa policies with those of the existing members, ensuring a consistent approach to issuing visas and managing visa applications.

• Judicial Cooperation: Close cooperation among judicial authorities is essential for effective crime-fighting within the Schengen Area. Candidate countries must demonstrate a commitment to and capability in sharing information and collaborating on investigations involving cross-border crime.

• Economic and Social Integration: While not a formal requirement, successful integration into the Schengen Area necessitates economic and social harmony with existing members. Significant disparities in economic development or social norms can create friction and complicate the accession process.

The Future of Schengen in 2026 and Beyond:

Predicting which country will join Schengen in 2026 remains speculative. While Bulgaria and Romania are the most likely candidates, their accession hinges on overcoming political hurdles and addressing the concerns raised by other member states. Their success will depend on their capacity to demonstrate significant improvements in border management and crime prevention.

The future of Schengen expansion is intrinsically linked to the broader political climate within the EU. Growing concerns about security and migration continue to shape the debate surrounding enlargement. If the EU prioritizes further integration and demonstrates a willingness to address the challenges faced by candidate countries, then expansion might proceed at a faster pace. However, if political opposition persists or new security concerns emerge, the prospect of further expansion in the near future could remain uncertain.

In conclusion, while several countries aspire to join the Schengen Area, 2026 might not witness any new additions. The complex interplay of political factors, security concerns, and the rigorous requirements for accession makes definitive predictions challenging. The ongoing efforts of candidate countries to meet the necessary criteria, along with the willingness of existing member states to embrace further expansion, will ultimately determine the future shape and size of the Schengen Area. Continued monitoring of political developments and the progress of candidate countries will be essential in understanding the likely evolution of the Schengen Area in the years to come.